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Chinese economy to continue to grow dynamically in the next decades: expert

January 10 2018

China has the potential to maintain an annual economic growth rate of 6 percent until the 2030s, said former senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank Justin Lin Yifu Tuesday. Lin, also the honorary dean of National School of Development at Peking University, made the remarks while delivering a keynote speech during the "Forecast: China's Economy 2018," an event hosted by the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and Peking University's China Center for Economic Research in New York. He attributed his confidence in the Chinese economy to the fact that "China's labor productivity will improve continuously in the years to come." The economist explained that the way to maintain economic growth is to improve labor productivity, and the way to raise labor productivity is to "have technology innovation as well as industrial upgrading." Lin said that compared to developed countries like the United States, China, as a developing economy, has the so-called "latecomer advantage" in terms of technology innovation and industrial upgrading. He further stated that developing countries like China can "learn technology that has been matured in high-income countries," so that "the cost and risks of innovation are comparably low, and potentially, developing countries can grow more dynamically than high-income countries." According to Lin, China has benefited from the "latecomer advantage" in the past 40 years and achieved an annual growth rate of 9.6 percent, which was hailed as a miracle by many all over the world. For the years to come, he predicted that China will continue to maintain a faster growth rate compared to developed countries. To further illustrate his prediction, Lin cited his latest study of the world economy in the past 70 years, pointing out that "In 2008, the per capita GDP of China was 21 percent of the United States, which was similar to Japan in 1951, Singapore in 1967, China's Taiwan in 1975 and South Korea in 1977." "The four economies above all achieved an annual growth rate of 8 percent to 9 percent continuously over the next 20 years, which indicates that China can achieve around an 8 percent growth rate continuously from 2008 to 2028," said Lin. He added that real economic growth will depend on how much China carries out current reforms to ensure social and political stability as well as on the global economic situation. "From my observation, it is very likely that China will be able to achieve a 6 percent growth rate from now until around the 2030s," Lin noted.

China aims to be global trade power

December 27 2017

China has set a goal of building itself into a global powerhouse in international trade by 2035 through further reform and fine-tuning of trade structure, including upgrading the quality of goods and services consumed in the local market and improving the quality of two-way investment, the country's commerce minister said. To reach the long-term target, the Ministry of Commerce first has to further enhance China's role as a major global trading partner before 2020 and deploy more resources to maintain a steady growth in international trade, make efficient use of foreign investment and ensure Chinese companies invest overseas in an orderly way in 2018, according to Minister Zhong Shan. "Next year, China will continue to deepen the cooperation and partnership with economies related to the Belt and Road Initiative and host an international imports exhibition to further boost trade and stimulate investment," Zhong said. The ministry's other priorities in the next five years include further tapping regional trade growth engines, fostering new trade momentum in high-end products and services, and building up new bilateral and multilateral free trade protocols, he said. Meeting the moderate goal of being a major trade player by 2020 would demonstrate that China is sufficiently strong in many elements of global trading, but there is still some way to go for China to grow into a truly global trading powerhouse. Problems and challenges it may still face include things like labor costs, environmental issues, lack of core technology and trade protectionism, said Ma Yu, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation. A country that is a global trade powerhouse needs to have many world-leading industries and a favorable investment and trading environment, with the support of preferential government policies, an advanced logistics network and sound infrastructure, Ma said. "Also the country has to be a firm proponent of multilateral economic cooperation and trading systems," he said. Ren Hongbin, director-general of the ministry's Department of Foreign Trade, said even though China is still confronting trade issues such as protectionism and outdated technologies in certain sectors, its perspective for next year will be promising, thanks to the recovering global economy and tangible results generated by supply-side structural reform. As the major driver and stabilizer of the global economy, China will push forward a new pattern of all-around opening-up to pursue mutual benefit with the rest of the world, according to a statement released after the Central Economic Work Conference concluded on Wednesday. The country will increase imports and cut import tariffs on some products to promote balanced trade, it said. China's foreign trade volume rose to 25.14 trillion yuan ($3.8 trillion) between January and November, which is a 15.6 percent increase in comparison with the same period the previous year, the General Administration of Customs said. Eager to diversify its earning ability, China will push forward a pre-establishment national treatment system as well as a negative list that determine where foreign participation is prohibited or limited. The negative list will become shorter and the country will improve laws and regulations, officials said.

Foreign companies keen on China's clean energy drive

December 25 2017

China's push to clean up the environment is creating a huge renewable energy market, tempting industry leaders. Automakers, for example, are vying for a larger share of the world's fastest-growing new energy vehicle market. U.S. automaker Tesla is reportedly in talks with Shanghai to build a factory, and the company is "deeply committed to the Chinese market." Ford recently announced a joint venture with Anhui Zotye Automobile to produce and sell electric cars in China, with plans to launch 15 models by 2025. The growing interest comes with China's intensified efforts to ease pressure on the environment through tax exemptions and subsidies for new energy cars. Bill Ford, executive chairman of Ford Motor Company, said China is taking the lead in the electric vehicle market as there is a real government push to clear the air. It is not just the automobile industry that sees opportunities in government initiatives. Companies from chemical producers to natural gas providers are thrilled by the push for long-term, sustainable growth. Clariant, a Swiss chemicals company, is looking for Chinese partners to commercialize its "sunliquid," which converts agricultural residue such as wheat straw into ethanol. According to Markus Rarbach, head of biofuels and derivatives at Clariant, the company's technology could be in widespread use in 2018. In September, the National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration decided to increase use of bioethanol gasoline by 2020, and to build an facility that will produce 50,000 tonnes of cellulosic ethanol a year. "Given China's huge population and growing economy, our sunliquid technology can play a key role in helping the country make that important fuel switch," Rarbach said. The transition in fuel is also helping eliminate winter smog. This year, Beijing has shut down more than 4,000 coal-fired boilers used for winter heating, replacing coal with natural gas and electricity, prompting state oil companies to look overseas for new gas sources. Sinopec will take the lead in exploration of liquified natural gas (LNG) in Alaska, according to a deal signed during U.S. President Donald Trump's visit to China. The project could create 70,000 new jobs in theUnited States, while helping China cut 80 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions annually, according to the Ministry of Commerce. In an interview with Xinhua, Governor Bill Walker of the U.S. state of Alaska said the project could provide a long-term LNG supply at a stable price and meet China's rising demand. "We have a tremendous opportunity in Alaska to bring liquefied natural gas to China on a very long-term basis," Walker said. With the country's continued opening-up and better environmental protection in the years to come, more foreign firms can benefit from China's clean energy drive.

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